Some Schools Are 100% Full With Waitlists, Others 70% Empty: HK's Kindergarten Survival Game
EDB data reveals 51,000 fewer kindergarten students in 5 years. But it's not uniform decline — Learning Habitat runs all branches at 100%, while 85 established schools are less than half full. Who wins, who closes next?
Kindergarten Enrollment Data (Official EDB Statistics)
Hong Kong's kindergartens are facing unprecedented enrollment pressure according to the Education Bureau's latest 2025/26 figures:
| School Year | No. of KGs | Students | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 1,046 | 164,935 | — |
| 2021/22 | 1,042 | 155,956 | -5.4% |
| 2022/23 | 1,026 | 143,676 | -7.9% |
| 2023/24 | 1,009 | 136,095 | -5.3% |
| 2024/25 | 980 | 125,426 | -7.8% |
| 2025/26 | 958 | 113,204 | -9.7% |
5-year total: 88 fewer schools (-8.4%), 51,731 fewer students (-31.3%)
Source: Education Bureau, School Education Statistics Section (2025/26)
Enrollment by Class Level
The sharpest decline is in K1 (Nursery class), reflecting falling birth rates propagating upward:
| Level | 2020/21 | 2025/26 | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| K1 (Nursery) | 53,877 | 34,454 | -36.0% |
| K2 (Lower) | 57,195 | 37,905 | -33.7% |
| K3 (Upper) | 53,863 | 40,845 | -24.2% |
Note: EDB's "Nursery class" refers to K1 (age 3-4), not Pre-Nursery/PN. PN enrollment is not included in these figures.
The steepest K1 decline signals that the crisis is still deepening — these students will flow into K2 and K3 over the next two years.
Free Scheme Kindergartens Also Declining
| Year | KGs in Scheme | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 763 | 72.9% |
| 2025/26 | 722 | 75.4% |
41 schools left the free scheme in 5 years (some closed, some went private). The participation rate actually rose slightly because closures disproportionately hit private kindergartens.
Teacher Attrition
| Metric | 2020/21 | 2023/24 (Peak) | 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teachers | 14,119 | 11,733 | 10,591 |
| Wastage Rate | 10.2% | 19.1% | 14.9% |
| Pupil-Teacher Ratio | 8.1:1 | 8.3:1 | 7.9:1 |
Teacher wastage peaked at 19.1% in 2023/24 — nearly one in five teachers left. While the rate has eased to 14.9%, the absolute number continues falling. The silver lining: the pupil-teacher ratio has improved to 7.9:1 — fewer students per teacher.
School-Level Data: The Head Effect and Brutal Polarisation
Macro numbers only tell half the story. We queried the EDB's official CSDI API (portal.csdi.gov.hk) for all 957 kindergartens with valid data, comparing per-school enrollment (K1/K2/K3 × AM/PM/whole-day, reported separately) against "Permitted Accommodation of Classrooms in Use" — the official approved capacity.
Data source: Education Bureau Spatial Data (CSDI), 2025/26 academic year. Capacity field:
total_no_of_permitted_accommodation_of_class_rm_in_use.
Industry-Wide Average: Only 73.9% Full
| Utilisation Band | Schools | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 95-100% (near/at capacity) | 161 | 16.8% |
| 80-95% | 266 | 27.8% |
| 50-80% | 405 | 42.3% |
| Below 50% (at risk) | 123 | 12.9% |
Nearly 60% of schools operate below 80% capacity. The sector has significant surplus places.
Top 10% Absorb 33% of All Students
| Metric | Top 10% (95 schools) | Remaining 90% (862 schools) |
|---|---|---|
| Total students | 44,514 | 91,034 |
| Share | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| Average per school | 468 | 105 |
| Gap | — | Top schools enrol 4.4× more |
Fewer than 100 schools serve nearly one-third of all kindergarten children.
Schools at Near-Full Capacity (95-100%)
These schools are operating at or near their approved limit:
| School | Enrollment/Capacity | Utilisation |
|---|---|---|
| International Christian Quality Music School | 1,440/1,456 | 99% |
| Ka Lam Kindergarten | 816/833 | 98% |
| Cannan KG (Kowloon Tong) | 767/784 | 98% |
| Tsung Tsin Primary & KG | 745/750 | 99% |
| Canossa Sacred Heart KG | 590/600 | 98% |
| Learning Habitat KG (Grand Waterfront) | 348/348 | 100% |
| Learning Habitat KG (Star Maritime) | 392/392 | 100% |
| Learning Habitat KG (Heya Crystal) | 282/282 | 100% |
| Kingston KG | 323/348 | 93% |
| CWB Victoria Intl KG | 384/420 | 91% |
Learning Habitat runs all campuses at exactly 100% capacity — these top schools still interview-select.
Schools Below 50% Utilisation (Capacity ≥ 50)
| School | Enrollment/Capacity | Utilisation | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kowloon Funful KG | 40/372 | 11% | Private |
| Kendall Intl Preschool (Island East) | 9/58 | 16% | Private |
| Guidepost Montessori (Sai Kung) | 19/112 | 17% | Private |
| Mun Lok KG | 45/259 | 17% | Free scheme |
| Lutheran Tsak On Tong KG | 25/139 | 18% | Free scheme |
| Mighty Oaks Intl KG (Lei King Wan) | 16/88 | 18% | Private |
| Hamilton Hill Intl (Island East) | 31/154 | 20% | Private |
| Sheung Shui Rhenish Church KG | 51/192 | 27% | Free scheme |
| Galilei International KG | 36/128 | 28% | Private |
| St Anthony Anglo-Chinese KG (Belvedere) | 41/139 | 29% | Private |
123 schools operate below 50% capacity. However, this requires context:
| Category | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Recently opened (registered after 2020) | ~37 | Still building enrollment; low utilisation ≠ failing |
| Data anomalies | ~1 | e.g. Ming Wai Intl with capacity=7 (likely error) |
| Genuinely under-enrolled mature schools | ~85 | Structural problem, worth monitoring |
The 85 genuinely struggling schools are mainly international/Montessori schools and aging-district schools, plus some free-scheme schools (e.g. Mun Lok KG, Lutheran Tsak On Tong — both founded in the 1960s).
The Brutal Conclusion
This isn't a uniform recession. It's a survival game:
- Top-tier schools (Learning Habitat, ICQM, Ka Lam, Cannan) run at 95-100% — near maximum capacity
- Mid-tier schools operate at 50-80% — noticeable empty seats but still viable
- 123 schools sit below 50% — slowly bleeding out, losing a few students each year until unviable
Notable: Kentville — once among the most prestigious Kowloon Tong schools — still shows 90% utilisation (1,247/1,380) but has announced closure after 2025/26. Even 90% full, operational costs and rent pressure can kill a school.
Enrollment Rankings: By District and Top Schools
Actual student numbers are the most direct indicator of school strength — parents vote with their feet. Below ranks all schools (combining multi-campus brands) by total enrolled students.
Full rankings: Enrollment Rankings Page
18 Districts by Total Enrollment
| Rank | District | Students | Schools | Avg/School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kowloon City | 17,731 | 81 | 219 |
| 2 | Yuen Long | 13,452 | 76 | 177 |
| 3 | Sha Tin | 10,630 | 74 | 144 |
| 4 | Tuen Mun | 9,178 | 64 | 143 |
| 5 | Kwun Tong | 9,169 | 74 | 124 |
| 6 | Sham Shui Po | 9,152 | 50 | 183 |
| 7 | Eastern | 7,641 | 66 | 116 |
| 8 | Sai Kung | 7,550 | 67 | 113 |
| 9 | Kwai Tsing | 7,320 | 59 | 124 |
| 10 | North | 6,949 | 43 | 162 |
| 11 | Wan Chai | 5,701 | 29 | 197 |
| 12 | Tsuen Wan | 5,245 | 37 | 142 |
| 13 | Wong Tai Sin | 4,989 | 42 | 119 |
| 14 | Tai Po | 4,831 | 33 | 146 |
| 15 | Central & Western | 4,709 | 43 | 110 |
| 16 | Yau Tsim Mong | 4,627 | 35 | 132 |
| 17 | Islands | 3,613 | 35 | 103 |
| 18 | Southern | 3,029 | 30 | 101 |
Kowloon City leads with 17,731 students — home to ICQM, Kentville, Munsang, Pui Ching and other elite schools. Sham Shui Po's high per-school average (183) reflects mega-schools like Tsung Tsin and Yat Yat Tsuen.
Top 20 Schools by Enrollment
| Rank | School | District | Students | Capacity | Util. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ICQM | Kowloon City | 2,021 | 2,042 | 99% |
| 2 | Tsung Tsin Primary & KG | Sham Shui Po | 1,490 | 1,500 | 99% |
| 3 | Kentville KG | Kowloon City | 1,247 | 1,380 | 90% |
| 4 | Munsang College KG | Kowloon City | 1,008 | 1,290 | 78% |
| 5 | Yat Yat Tsuen School | Sham Shui Po | 905 | 1,213 | 75% |
| 6 | Pui Ching Primary | Kowloon City | 898 | 948 | 95% |
| 7 | Immaculate Heart of Mary KG | Sha Tin | 885 | 1,078 | 82% |
| 8 | Ka Lam KG | Yuen Long | 816 | 833 | 98% |
| 9 | Cannan KG (KLT) | Kowloon City | 767 | 784 | 98% |
| 10 | Kiangsu & Chekiang School | Eastern | 750 | 1,309 | 57% |
| 11 | HK Soka KG | Kowloon City | 650 | 652 | 100% |
| 12 | York Intl KG | Kowloon City | 612 | 680 | 90% |
| 13 | Canossa Sacred Heart KG | C&W | 590 | 600 | 98% |
| 14 | Tin Lok KG | Yuen Long | 585 | 628 | 93% |
| 15 | SKH Siu Lun KG | Tuen Mun | 561 | 608 | 92% |
| 16 | FLBC Lui Ming Choi KG | North | 540 | 540 | 100% |
| 17 | St Paul's KG | Wan Chai | 540 | 540 | 100% |
| 18 | Good Hope Primary & KG | Wong Tai Sin | 540 | 540 | 100% |
| 19 | CCC Yuen Long True Light KG II | Yuen Long | 538 | 538 | 100% |
| 20 | FLAC KG | North | 536 | 616 | 87% |
6 of the top 20 are in Kowloon City, 2 in Sham Shui Po. ICQM tops at 2,021 students (multi-campus total), Tsung Tsin follows at 1,490. Notable: schools with large capacity but low utilization (Kiangsu 57%, Yat Yat Tsuen 75%, Munsang 78%) are high-volume but losing students.
What This Means for Parents
The enrollment decline actually benefits families choosing schools:
Advantages
| Benefit | Details |
|---|---|
| Less competition | Even popular schools are easier to enter |
| More places available | Some schools actively lower admission bars |
| Smaller classes | Better teacher-student ratio, more attention |
| Better service | Schools work harder to maintain reputation |
Risks to Watch
| Risk | Details |
|---|---|
| School closure | Under-enrolled schools may shut mid-year |
| Merged classes | Mixed-age teaching in combined classes |
| Teacher turnover | Struggling schools lose good teachers |
| Reduced resources | Less funding means fewer activities |
Real Impact of Kindergarten Closures and How to Respond
88 schools disappeared in 5 years — an average of 18 kindergartens closing per year. For parents of enrolled children, sudden closure announcements can cause significant disruption.
When are closures typically announced?
Based on past cases, schools usually announce closures mid-year (November-January) or end-of-year (May-June), leaving parents only months to find alternatives. Some schools notify families just one month before the new school year.
Impact on enrolled students
| Affected area | Specific issues |
|---|---|
| School transfer | Urgent need to find new schools; popular ones already full |
| Learning continuity | Different curricula and pacing may disrupt learning |
| Social adjustment | Child must adapt to new environment and peers |
| Primary progression | Through-train agreements become void after closure |
| Fee refunds | Refund procedures can be complex and delayed |
What to do if your school announces closure
- Contact EDB immediately — The Education Bureau typically assists with school transfers
- Reach out to nearby schools — Prioritise same district, same type
- Consider switching schemes — If originally private, consider Free Kindergarten Scheme schools (lower fees)
- Timing matters — Mid-year transfers are harder than end-of-year
- Keep documentation — Save tuition receipts, student records, etc.
Prevention is better than cure: When choosing schools, proactively check enrollment trends on the EDB website. Schools with utilisation rates below 50% warrant caution.
How to Assess School Viability
When choosing a school, watch for these warning signs:
- Declining class numbers — from 3 classes down to 1-2 suggests enrollment pressure
- Teacher stability — frequent principal/teacher changes signal internal issues
- Facility maintenance — aging premises without renovation may indicate tight budgets
- Aggressive marketing — heavy advertising and lowered entry requirements
- District demographics — schools in aging communities face higher risk
Which Schools Are Safer?
These types of schools tend to be more resilient:
- Through-train schools — guaranteed primary placement attracts families
- Large education groups — e.g. Learning Habitat, Victoria
- New development areas — Tseung Kwan O, Kai Tak, where young families concentrate
- Reputable free-scheme schools — low fees + good quality = steady demand
- International/private elite schools — e.g. Yew Chung, less affected by local birth rates
Outlook
Based on Census & Statistics data, annual births remain at historic lows (~32,500 in 2022; ~31,000 provisional for 2025), meaning:
- 2026/27 to 2028/29: Enrollment pressure will intensify further
- An estimated 50-100 more schools may face closure
- The enrollment squeeze will propagate to primary schools from 2028
For most parents, this is effectively a "buyer's market" — schools need students more than parents need schools. However, top-tier DSS/private schools may not see reduced competition, as families arriving via talent schemes (Top Talent Pass, Quality Migrant) also compete for these places. But for the majority of free-scheme and mid-tier private kindergartens, pressure has eased significantly.
Related Articles
- Enrollment Rankings — All 938 kindergartens ranked by actual student numbers
- K1 Application Guide 2027/28
- Free Scheme Kindergartens
- District Rankings
Source: Education Bureau School Education Statistics Section, 2025/26 academic year. Article updated periodically.